Now that we are clearly into another election cycle, I thought I’d post a few thoughts on where I think we’re at here in Indiana. The last election was certainly a lot of fun — both getting a huge amount of attention from the Democratic Primary through the general election, and pulling off the biggest state-level suprise on election night. So what’s happening here now? In some respects, not a whole lot, with some questions left unanswered.
Unless something very unexpected happens, Senator Bayh and all nine of our current Congressman should be re-elected in 2010. I wouldn’t be suprised if none of them got very serious challengers. The one who might be facing the biggest challenge is Dan Burton in Indiana 05, and that would be in a Republican primary (it’s not a district we’re ever going to win).
The big fight here will be 2012, especially if Senator Lugar retires to go along with an open governors race, trying to stay in the Obama column, and a potentially significantly redistricted group of Congressman. What redistricting looks like is going to determine a whole lot. Republicans will control the process, but it is not at all certain the extent to which they will change things. We’re not gaining or losing a seat, so outside of relatively moderate population shifts to the suburbs, the current map we have now COULD remain largely in-tact. Or a couple of our Democratic Congressmen could get really screwed. The two who would be most at risk to see their districts taken from them are Baron Hill (move Bloomington back to IN-08), and Joe Donnelly (make IN-01 even more Democratic, and give him more conservative parts currently in IN-01, 03, maybe 04 or 05). Will Baron Hill or Brad Ellsworth run for the Senate (if Lugar retires) or Governor? I think that’s all going to depend on what their congressional districts look like going into 2012.
Who do the Republicans have to run statewide? Currently, the Lt. Gov, and a bunch of wingnuts. LG Becky Skillman I think is part of the more moderately conservative wing of the Republican Party that Governor Daniels is, but she’s a beyond boring candidate that doesn’t do anything/no one knows much about. A friend of mine who works for the state says she rides around with the big scissors and cuts ribbons. It would be hard to tell which of thier four Congressman (Buyor, Souder, Burton, and Pence) is the looniest. FYI, I think Pence is the most politically skilled of them, and the one I would fear the most.
Now, to the most important and open-ended question — are we now a toss-up state at the Presidential level, or was 2008 sort-of a one-shot deal? I think what 2008 has given us is an opportunity. Yes, it took a lot of factors to win: a candidate willing to spend a ton of money and come here a lot paired against John McCain, who had one kind-of sad looking airport rally a few days before the election, and that was about it (along with a scarey Palin rally that probably put more people off than attracted them). Had the GOP taken Obama more seriously in Indiana even a month before the election, we probably wouldn’t have carried the state. But more importantly, as I said above, we’ve been presented with an opportunity to build off of.
One example of what I think really won 2008 for us here: Hamilton County. Yes, we only took about 39% of the vote there. But that’s enough to win the state. This is the rapidly growing, very wealthy county just north of Indianapolis. Previous to this year, the only time Democrats went to Hamilton County was to hold private $5000 a plate dinners at wealthy donors’ homes. This time, we opened a Hamilton County Democratic Party office for the first time since the late 1980s. The result was holding the Republicans to a 30,000 vote margin there — and they need a lot more than that to win the state. In fact, if you add together the four “donut counties” around Indianapolis (Hamilton, Hancock, Hendricks, and Johnson), the Republican margin total was about 70,000. Our margin in Marion County was over 100,000. That’s the opposite of what elections usually are — and presents us with a wonderful opportunity to build on.
Great diary! If I could just add a few thoughts, as probably one of a handful of Republicans that reads this blog:
I think a lot of this hinges on who wins the state house in 2010. The Dems held onto their 51-49 majority, but only because of a lopsided Obama margin in Marion County. If it weren’t for that, Jon Elrod and Chris Swatts wouldn’t have lost. There’s a very good chance that the GOP will retake the house in 2010, which will mean control over redistricting.
I’m not so sure that this confidence in the DNC’s future in Indiana is warranted. Mitch Daniels is very popular and the state remains fundamentally Republican. I think much of Obama’s appeal derives from being from Illinois and his tough primary campaign here. I’ve met Joe Donnelly, and he seems terrified about his district. Even when he was up against a joke candidate in 2008, he seemed to have the impression that his grip there in the long-run was shaky. Baron Hill won’t be around much longer if Bloomington is shifted to the Fourth District. Who knows- maybe the GOP will indeed retake the House and go after them.
As for Evan Bayh- he’s probably unbeatable, barring a big gun like Mike Pence jumping into the race. It’s easy to get reelected time and time again if you do nothing to offend anybody.
Did the Dems win any statewide races in 2008 aside from Obama? I don’t think they did. Not exactly a good sign for them.
ended when your Republican Governor was reelected. Unless Democrats find a way to win the state Senate next cycle, the Republicans are going to get the map they want.
I would count on at least one, and probably several, Dem incumbents to be targeted. The Republicans will try to pick up at least one seat in the north and one in the south.
and Baron Hill will run for the Senate. That likely means that the 9th will be redistricted and the Repubs will pick it up.